No Jackets

this calls for some tuneskies

Triple J Hottest 100 of 2011: Betting Preview

I enjoy having a bit of a gamble, but because I hate losing money all my bets are quite calculated. Triple J’s Hottest 100 each year is an opportunity to splash the cash, and maybe take home a bit of money.

After analysing previous years Hottest 100’s you can get a reasonably good idea about the types of songs that will feature in the higher end of the countdown. At this point, Sportingbet and Betfair have opened markets on the Hottest 100, with Sportingbet opening more than just odds on the winner, but also odds on other markets including; second and third place, number Aussie songs in Top 10, Most Songs in the Hottest 100 and a number of head-to-head markets. With Gotye being such a short price favourite ($1.11 with Sportingbet), there’s really no point in betting on the outright winner of the countdown, so I’m going to take a look at some of the other categories.

Firstly, I’m going to summarise the key points needed for a song to poll well. There are 3 main items that determine how a song will go, these being; popularity, timing and artist diversity.
Popularity: Even though the count is hosted by Triple J, a number of non-listeners vote. This means the songs has to have reached commercial popularity.
Timing: A song released around voting time is more likely to be in the voters minds when choosing their shortlist than a song released in January.
Artist Diversity: An artist who releases a brilliant album will have more songs, so votes will be spread amongst songs. Mind you I got this hugely wrong last year when I didn’t think Big Jet Plane would even make top 10.

Now to the betting. I’m going to state the bookmaker, the market and the option that I feel have the most value. Also, I take no responsibility for any money lost or gambling addictions gained from my tips. They are my opinions only.

Sportingbet – Number of Aussie Songs in Top 10 – Four ($9)
The odds for this market are particularly curious. Six is the favourite but I don’t think we’ll get close that. I can only think of three Australian songs which are highly likely to make top 10 (Somebody That I Used To Know, Feeding Line and Contact High) , but I think that our home bias could push a fourth (Endless Summer or Act Yr Age) in. You can get $17 if you think only three will get in.

Sportingbet – Most Songs In Hottest 100  (group) – Gotye ($10) and Grouplove ($5.50)
Frustratingly, Sportingbet have two different groups for this category. This means that the artists are only competing against those in their group. You can click on the links above to see who else is in the group, but one would think Gotye would have a few in there, given the critical response for his album. Similarly, Grouplove’s inoffensive summer pop will be on the front of everyone’s mind at this time of year.

Sportingbet – Head to Head: Don’t Sit Down v Helena Beat – Helena Beat ($1.55)
I’m a big Arctic Monkeys fan, but they do not poll well in the Hottest 100, especially in recent years. Going with that, Don’t Sit Down Cause I’ve Moved Your Chair wasn’t even their best song of this year. Foster The People will win this one in a canter, especially without Pumped Up Kicks stealing votes.

Sportingbet – Head to Head: What The Water Gave Me v Changed The Way You Kiss Me – What The Water Gave Me ($1.87)
Sportingbet seems to be grossly over-rating this Example song. They have it fifth favourite to win but I can’t see it getting anywhere close. Surely Florence will easily win this head-to0head.

Betfair – Number 1 Song – Lay Somebody That I Used To Know
When you consider the three points from above, you consider if Gotye really should be as short as he is. Yes he is popular, but in recent weeks I’ve been sensing condescension regarding the song, partly due to the song being overplayed because it was released months ago. Also, there are arguably better songs on the album. I still think he should be favourite, but no one should be taking odds at less than $1.50 for him. Just food for thought.

Finally LuxBet have opened a market without Somebody That I Used To Know. They don’t have too many options though, and I would be very curious to see how they would price Lotus Flower by Radiohead. The song is strangely missing from all of Sportingbet’s markets. If there is any movement I will update this article.

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4 responses to “Triple J Hottest 100 of 2011: Betting Preview

  1. Lavers January 9, 2012 at 7:28 pm

    Also do your research and check out forums and facebook pages like this http://www.facebook.com/triplejhottest100?sk=wall#!/ I think the indication of the votes there will change your mind on gotye it is far and away the most voted for song. Best price options based on my research are with sportingbet for second and third. Put some money on m83-midnight city and the black keys-lonely boy, for both places as they are both very popular in the votes. Also doubtful on florence to beat example but don’t quote me on that one we’ll have to wait and see.

    • Callum January 9, 2012 at 9:41 pm

      I’m not arguing that Gotye won’t win. But as you say, there is reasonably strong competition from Black Keys and M83 in particular, judging from votes on Facebook and Twitter. Would you seriously think that Gotye is an 85-90% chance of winning? Because that’s what the bookies seem to think.

  2. Lavers January 28, 2012 at 9:49 am

    Hope you didn’t lose to much money mate.

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